Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 88.3%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète7 févr. 24, 23:12 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be alive on December 31 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market seeks to predict the survival of Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, up until the end of 31 December 2026.
- Given the natural concerns around the health and wellbeing of public figures, especially those of significant political stature and advanced age, this question is of public interest.
- Participants are encouraged to consider various factors that could influence the outcome, including but not limited to Biden's health records, actuarial life expectancy data for men in his age group, the stress associated with holding and having held high office, and any public information regarding his health and lifestyle.
- It is important to approach this market with sensitivity and respect for the subject and all individuals involved.
- Speculation should be grounded in publicly available information and presented in a manner that maintains the dignity of the individuals discussed.
- This market does not endorse or encourage speculation that is invasive or disrespectful.