Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleQwen 4 (or any Qwen model) 95.6%+0.6ptEn tête parmi 26 options
Prévisionnistes
55
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+45.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
31 oct. 26, 23:01 UTC1 déc. 26, 00:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of January? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of December?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiTop AI model this month
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during November 2026 (UTC).
- What counts as a release A model is released on the first day any member of the public in the U.S. can use it through an official channel without an invite: a self-serve API key, the lab’s web or app interface, or a download.
- Paid plans count if anyone can sign up.
- These do not count: waitlists, allowlists, trusted-tester programs, partner-only, enterprise-only or sector-limited access (for example, cyber-defender-only programs), and announcements or benchmark posts on their own.
- Models that are available only in the U.S. (e.g. Claude Fable 5) still count as widely available.
- What counts as a model (scope) Only general-purpose language and multimodal reasoning models count.