Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 90.8%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète23 juil. 25, 09:03 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
see https://epoch.ai/trends#compute.
- At market creation, the most recent update put grok 3 at 5e26 FLOP.
- This market will resolve to epoch's estimate if it is available at time of market close.
- If unavailable, the most sensible estimate at that time will be used.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Distributed training runs are not relevant to this market at 2e27 FLOP - only centralized training runs count.