Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 09:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 81.1%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète6 mars 26, 01:01 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Inspiration: https://xcancel.com/ajeya_cotra/status/2029576934523556256#m
- Will a model released this year (2026) be evaluated by METR to have a 50% time horizon of over 100 hours within 6 months of its release?
- Resolves using their most up-to-date methodology at the time (currently the 1.1 time horizon).
- I will tend to try and resolve to the spirit of the question in edge cases, rather than its letter, but I'm happy to take questions and try to provide clarifications in advance.