[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
One-OffChineGéopolitique3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.4%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 49 minutes
En retard27 août 24, 03:23 UTC2 janv. 30, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Paramount leader of the People's Republic of China after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWho will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/27415/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, any of events 1-3 occurs, and 4 also occurs.
- There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, including areas of the current territory ("free area" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data of the ROC.
- There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.