Will the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?
ChineGéopolitiqueOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.5%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète27 juin 24, 07:28 UTC14 janv. 28, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
China currently has a second strike nuclear posture, meaning it is not prepared to launch on warning of incoming missiles.
- Instead it has most of its nuclear warheads in storage, with a focus on survivability for a second strike.
- This market will resolve YES if at any point before 2027 China adopts a ‘launch on warning’ doctrine.
- For clarity, the ability to shift to a launch-on-warning posture during heightened tensions will not count unless such a shift actually occurs.
- The following may help in forming a view:
- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/china-nuclear-missiles.html