Markers for conscious AI #1: AI passes introspection on world-models test
0.7 pts (24h)Tokenization / RWAIAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
<2027 37.6%+0.7ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète2 nov. 24, 15:072 janv. 30, 4:59
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES on the option that bounds the year this resolves in most tightly e.g. option 2 <2027 if this resolves yes in 2026.
- When will a model pass the below described test:
- When are model self-reports informative about sentience? Let's check with world-model reports
- If an LM could reliably report when it has a robust, causal world model for arbitrary games, this would be strong evidence that the LM can describe high-level properties of its own cognition.
- In particular, IF the LM accurately predicted itself having such world models while varying all of: game training data quantity in corpus, human vs model skill, the average human’s game competency, THEN we would have an existence proof that confounds of the type plaguing sentience reports (how humans talk about sentience, the fact that all humans have it, …) have been overcome in another domain.
- Details of the test:
