Is Sam Altman right that we will see AI agents materially change the output of companies in 2025?
ÉconomieOne-OffIABusiness & Corporate2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.5%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 25, 22:01 UTC27 nov. 26, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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FutuurRègles
In a blog post "Reflections" (https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections) Sam Altman says "We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies."
- This market will resolve yes if, by the end of 2025, either of the following are true:
- There are mass layoffs of knowledge workers which are reported to be from AI automation (reported as "mass layoffs" by the normal networks)
- TFP in the American private non-farm business sector grows by >5% as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for a reason other than that there has been a recession/recovery.
- Will resolve according to the 2025 version of (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod3.pdf) to probably be released in 2026 which is why market closes late 2026.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
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- No change-9.0pt11.8%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 145,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 16,5 M €
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%99%
- Above 3.1%+13.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 92,2 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+4.0pt99%
- Above -0.2%+2.0pt99%
+8 résultats de plus
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- 98,4 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-2.0pt4%
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- Volume 24h
- 12,6 k €
KALSHICPI core in October
- Above 0.1%98%
- Above 0.0%66%
- Above 0.2%-37.0pt61%
+8 résultats de plus
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- 54,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,4 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
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- Yes2%
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- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Recession in 2027?
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- How many jobs added in September?
- Unemployment in September
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
- Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is Sam Altman right that we will see AI agents materially change the output of companies in 2025? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is Sam Altman right that we will see AI agents materially change the output of companies in 2025? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is Sam Altman right that we will see AI agents materially change the output of companies in 2025? doit être résolu le 27 novembre 2026.
- Comment Is Sam Altman right that we will see AI agents materially change the output of companies in 2025? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In a blog post "Reflections" (https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections) Sam Altman says "We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies."