Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 54%
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète2 févr. 24, 20:23 UTC4 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Kim Dotcom be extradited to the USA by the end of 2027>
Manifold MarketsU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
PolymarketUS recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
PolymarketUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by which date?
PolymarketWill a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBriahna Joy Grey took russian state-sponsored money. Strong Evidence presented before 2027.
Manifold MarketsRègles
Today Kim Dotcom posted on X suggesting that Ukrainians fighting Russia's invasion are Nazis.
- Dotcom has previously parroted Kremlin propaganda, touted Russia Today as a credible news source, and has told several lies over the course of Russia's invasion.
- Will Dotcom be exposed as a Kremlin agent or puppet? Question resolution after proof provided in either direction, but preliminary closing date Jan 2025.
- (More context: https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-pro-russian-falsehoods-kim-dotcom/6743375.html)
Marchés ouverts
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 473 k €
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.0pt6%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.3pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent? doit être résolu le 4 mars 2027.
- Comment Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Today Kim Dotcom posted on X suggesting that Ukrainians fighting Russia's invasion are Nazis.