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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
Is Manifold better-calibrated than financial markets on questions about future asset prices?
Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?
In 2030, will I think I was right about Habryka as a counterparty / Lightcone Infrastructure as a donation target?
Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Règles
This question is based on the following article by Eric Berger: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/.
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