Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.9%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète13 avr. 26, 14:32 UTC20 janv. 29, 15:29 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the results of a poll conducted on this platform.
- The market will close on Janurary 20th, and the final percentage of "Yes" votes vs. "No" votes will determine the outcome.
- If the percentage of "Yes" votes is greater than 50%, the market will resolve to "Yes." If the percentage of "No" votes is greater than or equal to 50%, the market will resolve to "No."
- The question of whether a contemporary political figure, such as Donald Trump, fits the biblical description of the "antichrist" is a subject of speculation among some religious groups and commentators.
- Historically, the term has been applied to various leaders throughout time.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 592,5 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 220,4 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 214,6 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is Donald Trump the Antichrist? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is Donald Trump the Antichrist? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is Donald Trump the Antichrist? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Is Donald Trump the Antichrist? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria