Prévision communautaire actuelle
Some year after 2040. 31.1%En tête parmi 21 options
Prévisionnistes
147
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 23, 11:10 UTC16 févr. 41, 13:48 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
Manifold MarketsConditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Manifold MarketsConditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
- 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys.
- The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI.
- Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
- If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.