Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 65.5%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 39 minutes
30 oct. 25, 23:55 UTC30 juin 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Andrej Karpathy and Elon back working together by mid 2028
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Manifold MarketsWill "Ilya Sutskever Deposition Transcript" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Either joining the same company, starting one together or other method of being in the same organization.
- The minimum participation level is "working".
- Participation levels that don't count:
- They both have to be a member of the org and doing work at the same time.
- Work means at least two days a week in general spending their time advancing the work of the organization as they should, in an organized way, and this must be overlapping time (in terms of dates of total employment) for them.
- Orgs that count
