Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
US PoliticsOne-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 69%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète26 janv. 24, 19:04 UTC2 févr. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? doit être résolu le 2 février 2029.
- Comment Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.