Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
Politique américaineOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 69.3%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète26 janv. 24, 19:04 UTC2 févr. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
