Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlectionGéopolitique2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58.1%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
22 janv. 24, 19:34 UTC7 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- Resolves based on my own judgement of what counts as "a serious attempt".
- I won't bet.
- (The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion.
- Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.)
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.