Will Trump make a statement supporting mainland China over Taiwan during his term?
Politique américaineOne-OffChine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 58.5%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard23 févr. 25, 01:05 UTC21 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Calling Taiwan a “renegade province” or “rebellious” or saying they are responsible for the ongoing conflict or any escalation thereof for any reason counts.
- Saying he wants to make a deal whereby Taiwan and China will be united into a Big Beautiful country would count as it is the pro-China stance on the conflict under any reasonable understanding.
- Merely threatening or promising not to defend Taiwan, e.g. because of their relatively low commitment to defense spending or lack of trade concessions would not count.
- I will apply a “same breath” rule to retractions, anything contradicted in the same tweet or interview answer doesn’t count, but after that walkbacks and retractions don’t matter.
- For a speech any retraction in the same speech counts, but not after taking questions.
