Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAI winter 33.1%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
2 juil. 25, 14:51 UTC30 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)
Manifold MarketsWill humanity still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Vladimir Putin still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs Jeffrey Epstein still alive and manipulating the markets? Will we find out by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
Manifold MarketsRègles
By default, continued AI development is assumed to lead to existential catastrophe.
- If we survive until 2035, this market asks: what kind of world are we in?
- This is a retrospective counterfactual question: imagine it is January 1st, 2035, and humanity is still alive.
- What explains our survival?
- Resolution Criteria: On December 30th, 2035, this market will resolve to the option that best describes the primary reason humanity avoided extinction by that date.
- Resolution will be based on public evidence and expert consensus to the extent possible.
