Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 92.1%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 23, 22:54 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)
Manifold MarketsWill Israel still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)
Manifold MarketsWill Alphabet Inc. (Google) or Microsoft or Apple will still exist by 2100
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketRègles
"Humanity" means any member of the species homo sapiens, even the word comes to be used in a broader way in the future.
- So a genetically modified or artificially created person would count as long as the modifications aren't so large that they make the person a completely different species, and a cyborg would also count as long as they are still biologically human.
- However, an uploaded human mind would not count, nor would any other form of AI or robotics.
