If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
7 oct. 26, 02:54 UTC3 janv. 29, 17:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRègles
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if any justice of the U.S. Supreme Court retires, resigns, dies or otherwise leaves the Court between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- A retirement counts when it takes effect; an announced retirement that has not taken effect by January 3, 2029 does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
