If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 67.2%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
7 oct. 26, 02:54 UTC3 janv. 29, 17:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiNext Justice to leave the US Supreme Court
FutuurRègles
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if any justice of the U.S. Supreme Court retires, resigns, dies or otherwise leaves the Court between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- A retirement counts when it takes effect; an announced retirement that has not taken effect by January 3, 2029 does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.
