Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellePrinceton Puzzle Hunt 95%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète27 janv. 26, 20:53 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.
Manifold MarketsWill non-EU cities catch up in terms of quality of life by 2035? [see description]
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
Resolves to 100% if I get 1st in a hunt, 0% if I am not in the top 20.
- Otherwise, 5*(21-place)%.
- I'll add hunts throughout the year as they are announced if I intend to participate in them.
- N/A if a hunt added doesn't run for some reason, or makes it impossible to determine a ranking.
- (Even if there aren't leaderboards, I'll try to find a ranking if, say, there are per-puzzle stats for the endgame puzzle.)
- [Added Feb 20:] Also N/A if I end up not doing a hunt due to some unforeseen event (e.g. some higher priority thing happens)