Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellePrinceton Puzzle Hunt 95%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète27 janv. 26, 20:53 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.
Manifold MarketsWill non-EU cities catch up in terms of quality of life by 2035? [see description]
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves to 100% if I get 1st in a hunt, 0% if I am not in the top 20.
- Otherwise, 5*(21-place)%.
- I'll add hunts throughout the year as they are announced if I intend to participate in them.
- N/A if a hunt added doesn't run for some reason, or makes it impossible to determine a ranking.
- (Even if there aren't leaderboards, I'll try to find a ranking if, say, there are per-puzzle stats for the endgame puzzle.)
- [Added Feb 20:] Also N/A if I end up not doing a hunt due to some unforeseen event (e.g. some higher priority thing happens)
