Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2027 74.1%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète28 mars 24, 09:19 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Super Heavy or Starship crash into the catching tower before 2030? (read description)
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Manifold MarketsWhat’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
If you don't want to read the full description, the short version is this: The probability of each time category represents the percentage of people that will be worse at problem-solving than an AI that doesn't use extreme amounts of energy.
- Codeforces contests will be used to measure the performance.
- Competitive Programming and AI
- AIs as of 2024 are good at retrieving previously discovered knowledge, they lack however the ability to navigate complex state spaces to arrive at new solutions.
- CP problems provide a good framework for testing them in this area, as we can easily test their solutions with a computation.
- As such, their rating in Codeforces will also reflect to some extent their ability to solve complex problems relative to other humans.
