Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62.5%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète11 juin 24, 07:13 UTC2 janv. 35, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
If a vaccine for HIV is approved by the FDA and available for commercial use before January 1st 2035 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes.
- Emergency Use Authorization will not be sufficient to resolve this market to yes, only full approval.
- Additionally, the vaccine must be released to the public and commercially available to certain members of the population.
- It need not be accessible to everyone, a release limited to certain age groups or otherwise restricted is still sufficient.
- A vaccine for either the treatment or prevention of HIV is sufficient.
- This means that either a vaccine treating a patient who has already contracted HIV, or a vaccine designed to prevent one from contracting HIV in the first place will both be sufficient to resolve this market.
