Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 59.9%
Prévisionnistes
71
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète29 sept. 25, 13:03 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Greta Thunberg calls for AI research pause/halt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Greta Thunberg get a boyfriend or SO by EOY2032?
Manifold MarketsGreta Thunberg arrested by which date?
PolymarketWill Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:
- Is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's "Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter, Center for AI Safety's "Statement on AI Risk")
- Is listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador
- Publishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause
- Participates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals
- This market does NOT resolve YES if:
