Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71.9%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète21 juil. 23, 00:31 UTC2 janv. 00, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
KalshiRègles
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44,4 k €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 72% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2100.
- Comment Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.