Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before 2027-01-01 96.3%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+8.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète31 août 26, 14:57 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date
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KalshiClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRègles
The '+' means any version at or above 5.4 counts: if Z.ai skips 5.4 and releases GLM 5.5 or GLM 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GLM 5.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
