Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: No (89.8%)
Résolu: 18 oct. 2026, 04:17
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
No
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
—
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 18 oct. 2026, 21:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes10.2%
No89.8%
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2029 AI predications
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime
- Resolves very subjectivly; don't bet if you don't trust my judgement.
- Physical reasoning includes things like driving cars, cleaning houses, and other use-cases that involve understanding directions and distances in the real world and manipulating physical objects.
- Psychological reasoning includes things like understanding human thoughts and ideas, making art and mathematical discoveries, writing computer programs, etc. This market resolves once it seems that AI's mastery of one of those domains has radically improved over the status quo in January of 2023.
- For example if before we reach AGI we get self-driving cars that are radically safer than humans in all situations, this will probably resolve YES.
