Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleSome current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist. 89.5%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète4 juil. 25, 14:01 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions
Manifold MarketsWill at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Manifold MarketsWill Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
For his 2024 predictions, his own resolutions are somewhat debatable.
- So I will try to resolve this by "general consensus" of some sort.
- As that is not super well-defined, I will not be betting.
