Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 95.7%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète18 nov. 25, 20:23 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.
- Alternatively, if 2 or more of these 3 frontier labs require the mobile app user to keep the app open while the model is reasoning about an answer, or else it won't complete, then this market resolves NO.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 269,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 199,9 k €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 85 k €
- Volume 24h
- 65,3 k €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 95.7% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2026.
- Comment Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.