Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.3%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète10 janv. 26, 06:31 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen, where or how will Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?
KalshiHeidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
PolymarketWill a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if former President Joe Biden dies at any point during 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death.
- The market resolves NO if Biden survives through December 31, 2026.
- Biden was born on November 20, 1942, making him 83 years old as of January 2026.
- He became the first president to turn 80 years old while in office.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 M €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-33.7pt51%
- Delcy Rodríguez+29.5pt42%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 29,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 621,6 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 19,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 488,8 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.3pt10%
+1 résultats de plus
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Former president Biden dead in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 19 septembre 2026.
- Quand Former president Biden dead in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Former president Biden dead in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Former president Biden dead in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria