Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 17:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 59%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
30 sept. 26, 07:07 UTC25 oct. 26, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsRègles
Third time's the charm?
- Scott Alexander has a market resolving in 2028 about whether Gary Marcus will be able to find "three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked." (Weird adversarial hacks don't count.)
- A year and a half ago, I thought maybe ChatGPT o3 was smart enough that it was there already.
- A few months later, I thought GPT-5-Thinking might've gotten there.
- So now it's been more than another year and maybe Claude Opus 5.5 is there?
- To resolve YES, that it still makes egregious errors, we need, by market close [UPDATE: By the deadline listed below], just one example I can replicate [in a Temporary Chat] (no access to my chat history) with effort set to max.
