Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 23, 22:52 UTC2 janv. 40, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.
- -"an": the deaths must be from the same source, such as a glitch, misfire or AI attack (we won't combine unrelated disasters).
- We'll include cumulative deaths over time (such as the same glitch killing people over several months), as long as it's credible that the deaths were caused by the same AI problem.
- -"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
- -"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
- Unless the AI was correctly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.
