Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?
Criminalité et justiceOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 59.2%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 23, 19:33 UTC1 janv. 00, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Inspired by all the people trying to back up their claims of AI risk by saying Turing agreed with them, such as here and here.
- "Non-negligible" means that Turing would have supported at least a few thousand person-hours by academics and computer scientists looking into the issue further.
- "Exterminate or enslave" will include any serious X-risk or S-risk.
- Anything that would make humanity much worse off than it is now.
- Resolves at some distant point in the future when these issues are less emotionally charged and people are less likely to engage in tribalism and motivated reasoning, and we hopefully have learned more about Turing's life and beliefs.
- The main two passages people quote:
