Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 66.1%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète4 août 26, 18:40 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, a single cyberattack or single coordinated cyberattack campaign is estimated to have caused $30 billion (USD) or more in total damages or economic losses.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Definition of a "Cyberattack": The incident must be a malicious, intentional intrusion, disruption, or exploitation of computer systems, networks, or operational technology by a threat actor (such as ransomware, wiper malware, malware-led supply chain compromises, or state-sponsored infrastructure attacks).
- Non-malicious IT failures, accidental software updates, or hardware malfunctions (e.g., the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage) do not qualify.
- Coordinated Campaign: A series of closely related intrusions using the same malware strain, targeting the identical vulnerability, or executed by the same threat group within a defined timeframe (analogous to the NotPetya or WannaCry campaigns of 2017) will count as a single cyberattack.
