Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 66.1% au 27 octobre 2026.

Quand Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 66.1%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 17 heures

Obsolète

4 août 26, 18:40 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, a single cyberattack or single coordinated cyberattack campaign is estimated to have caused $30 billion (USD) or more in total damages or economic losses.
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Definition of a "Cyberattack": The incident must be a malicious, intentional intrusion, disruption, or exploitation of computer systems, networks, or operational technology by a threat actor (such as ransomware, wiper malware, malware-led supply chain compromises, or state-sponsored infrastructure attacks).
Non-malicious IT failures, accidental software updates, or hardware malfunctions (e.g., the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage) do not qualify.
Coordinated Campaign: A series of closely related intrusions using the same malware strain, targeting the identical vulnerability, or executed by the same threat group within a defined timeframe (analogous to the NotPetya or WannaCry campaigns of 2017) will count as a single cyberattack.