Prévision communautaire actuelle
Custom ASIC 62.9%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète18 févr. 26, 02:38 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsAI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
The ratio of compute (per FLOP) used for the flagship language models of the 10 leading companies/organizations at market close.
- Sources: company/lab announcements, consensus reporting
- (Hopefully) forward-compatible definitions:
- GPU: a general-purpose CPU specialized to handle embarassingly parallel workload tasks
- FPGA: an ASIC that implements logic gates through a reprogrammable medium (currently, LUTs and routing fabric), meaning the logic can be cost-effectively modified after finishing manufacturing, at a price at least one OOM less than manufacturing a new one.
- ASIC (excluding FPGAs): a non-reprogrammable IC that directly implements logic that would normally be handled at the programming-language layer in a CPU directly in the digital logic.