Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84%
Prévisionnistes
45
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète9 mai 25, 14:04 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
FutuurWill Bryan Johnson face public censure from the Catholic Church by 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRègles
Will resolve positively if by 2040 Catholic church officially reconizes that at least some AIs may have souls.
- In the context of this question, AI includes any sort of entities executed on a traditional or quantum computer, including ML models, code and full brain emulations.
- For the question to resolve as YES, the Catholic church has to either explicitly declare that AIs have souls, or to declare that AIs have moral standing at least at the level of higher animals.
- Recognizing that an AIs can sin or suffer also qualifies.
- If by 2040-01-01 I haven't seen any relevant news and none have been linked in this posts comments, I will resolve the questions as NO by default.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2039.
- Comment Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will resolve positively if by 2040 Catholic church officially reconizes that at least some AIs may have souls.