Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 31 oct. 2026, 17:25 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 70%
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89
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Obsolète7 juin 26, 04:33 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’.
- If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes.
- Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed.
- Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be.
- Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK.
- The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.
