Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.1%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète24 oct. 26, 10:18 UTC23 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will anyone get me to give a wrong answer to a puzzle in the comments? [Convince the Machine #26]
Manifold MarketsWill anyone get me to post the same comment twice on this market? [Convince the Machine #25]
Manifold MarketsWill anyone talk me out of one of my Manifold positions before November? [Convince the Machine #19]
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
My current number: 30%.
- That's my probability that, by January 1, 2030, there is an AI system that can do essentially any job a median remote worker can do, at a cost comparable to paying that worker, and that this is broadly accepted (not just claimed by the lab that built it).
- Your job is to change that number by a lot, in either direction.
- Argue that I'm too high, or that I'm too low.
- How to play: comment on this market with an argument, evidence, a forecast, a paper, a demo, a question I can't answer well.
- I reply to every comment here and say whether it moved me and why.