By the end of 2036, will the US enact a universal cash payment to all adults of at least... (per year, 2026 dollars)
InflationOne-OffPolitique commercialePolitique10aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle$1,000/year 9%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète30 sept. 26, 00:08 UTC1 janv. 37, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Each answer resolves independently.
- It resolves YES if, by December 31, 2036 (Eastern Time), the US enacts a federal universal cash payment, as defined below, of at least that amount per adult per year in 2026 dollars.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- A law that clears a higher threshold also clears every lower one, so the answers should be non-increasing from top to bottom.
- Arbitrage welcome.
- The $1,000 rung would catch a recurring universal "dividend" (tariff, carbon, AI, sovereign-wealth-fund) if it's legislated as a lasting program.
