Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 74.6%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète11 mars 26, 02:12 UTC7 janv. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%)
Manifold Marketswhat will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Context: https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems There are currently 4 categories of Frontier Math Open Problems: Moderately Interesting, Solid Result, Major Advance, Breakthrough.
- This market will resolve yes if 1 of the 3 breakthrough problems are solved by AI.
- If more 'Breakthrough' questions are added, they are also considered for the resolution of this market.
- If a problem is removed, it will not be considered.
- If it is solved by a human beforehand, it will be up to the judgement of EpochAI whether it is valid or not.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 'Breakthrough' Frontier Math Open Problem solved before 2028 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand 'Breakthrough' Frontier Math Open Problem solved before 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- 'Breakthrough' Frontier Math Open Problem solved before 2028 doit être résolu le 7 janvier 2028.
- Comment 'Breakthrough' Frontier Math Open Problem solved before 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Context: https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems There are currently 4 categories of Frontier Math Open Problems: Moderately Interesting, Solid Result, Major Advance, Breakthrough.