Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 53.9%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète30 sept. 25, 08:22 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Israel agree to the Board of Peace Gaza plan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsMembers of the Board of Peace?
Manifold MarketsWill China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Trump's 20-point plan for resolving the Israeli occupation of Gaza includes the following stage:
- 9) Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza.
- This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace”, which will be headed and chaired by [US] president Donald J Trump, with other members and heads of state to be announced, including former prime minister Tony Blair.
- This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform programme, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza.
- This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment.
- This market resolves YES if the Board of Peace, or an entity with a different title but a fundamentally similar mission and makeup, assumes control of Gaza at any point before 1st January 2028.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour "Board of Peace" established before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand "Board of Peace" established before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- "Board of Peace" established before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment "Board of Peace" established before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Trump's 20-point plan for resolving the Israeli occupation of Gaza includes the following stage: