Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 54.8%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète26 mai 26, 00:32 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Why we are excited about confession!" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAre we going to create safety laws about AI?
Manifold MarketsWill "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill I make a tweet about AI with more likes than my tweet about beavers by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves according to pew polling: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/03/12/key-findings-about-how-americans-view-artificial-intelligence/
- If > 75% are more concerned than excited at any point before 2030 this resolves yes