Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
IAOne-Off2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 06:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.7%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète18 déc. 24, 06:57 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if there is an online encyclopedia other than Wikipedia on January 1, 2027 satisfying the following conditions:
- - At least 5 billion words of original English, spanning roughly as wide a variety of topics as Wikipedia itself.
- - The large majority (>90%) of text should credibly have been written by an AI
- - Articles systematically meet the same or better standards of citation as Wikipedia, judged in terms of the broad veracity, extent, and variety of sources.
- I do not necessarily require that the competitor has licensing or particular citation policies (such as the No Original Research policy) matching those of Wikipedia.
- - For a random sample of at least 100 articles on the competitor where there was an equivalent Wikipedia article in late 2024 (i.e. not recent events), I prefer the competitor's article at least 65% of the time over the late-2024 Wikipedia version of the article.
