Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?
US PoliticsOne-OffPolitique1jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.4%
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Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
4 nov. 25, 13:59 UTC10 sept. 26, 12:18 UTC
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Will another influencer be killed in a politically motivated attack by Sept 10. 2026?
- To be considered an influencer, for the purposes of this market, they have to be primarily known as a media pundit or a social media influencer/content creator and/or their political power must primarily derive from their position as an influencer, not from an elected seat, family or an influential career in politics.
- A politically active current or former state-, or higher level politician (i.e. Trump, Obama, Newsom, AOC etc.), would be highly unlikely to qualify, even if they otherwise did fulfill all the requirements below.
- Also unlikely to qualify would be a famous person mostly known for their work portfolio outside of their social media influence (i.e. Taylor Swift, Gal Gadot etc.) even if they were politically outspoken and specifically targeted for that reason.
- To be considered a politically motivated murder, the police reports and/or the media consensus has to show that the person was murdered specifically due to their political views/influence.
- Rough figures for the influencer notability requirement:
