Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.6%
Prévisionnistes
74
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard26 juin 26, 07:51 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI that takes over the universe be a cute anime girl?
Manifold MarketsIf a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES iff there is a successful AI-assisted, or autonomously AI executed, cyber attack on the real-time gross settlement system (eg Fedwire in the US, Europe's T2) of any OECD country by January 1st 2028.
- The qualifying attack should result in the settlement system going offline for at least two hours, and must be the result of a deliberate attack by a third party that uses AI as a major part of the attack, or is itself an AI, according to credible reporting.
- Disruptions attributable to human error or internal operational failures do not count.
