Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 56.8% au 26 octobre 2026.

Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?

Chine IAOne-Off4a

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Mis à jour il y a 9 heures

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24 sept. 26, 20:27 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC

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Must either be available in a car a normal person could actually buy (<$1M USD), or in a ride-share program a normal person could actually use.

Only available in China or some other country is fine.
LLM-based means that the self-driving system relies on a (possibly heavily modified) LLM to make driving decisions.
A hybrid system where the LLM makes a subset of driving decisions would qualify.
For this question I'm defining LLM slightly generously - if the driving model itself is capable of reasoning about and responding to general user queries (including those having nothing to do with driving) via text, or is a modified variant of a model which could do so, I'll consider it an LLM.
Please ask clarifying questions!