Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 63.7%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète3 mars 26, 05:35 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Publicly available: Must be available to normal users (paid ok) at some point before 2027.
- General purpose: This is based on advertising and positioning of the model.
- GPT-5.3-Codex would not count because it's positioned as a Codex-specific model, as evidenced by its exclusive availability within Codex.
- GPT-5.2 would count.
- In general if the model is released within a chatbot, that's sufficient to make it general purpose.
- Major AI Labs: For this market, this list includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, and DeepSeek.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- 225,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 157 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 348,3 k €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 64% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Publicly available: Must be available to normal users (paid ok) at some point before 2027.