Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour A fusion power plant will generate a net 100 megawatt of electricity by the beginning of 2063 ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 77.7% au 28 octobre 2026.

A fusion power plant will generate a net 100 megawatt of electricity by the beginning of 2063

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 77.7%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 heures

Obsolète

25 mars 23, 03:44 UTC1 janv. 63, 05:00 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions.
(The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Clarification:
Conditional on no AGI or population collapse.
Because of the likely transformative nature of AGI and superintelligence, I phrase many of my predictions about the future as conditional on no AGI so that the predictions are less dependent on AGI timeline estimates.