KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Democratic by 9.0% or more 19.3%En tête parmi 20 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
64 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
693,5 €
Liquidité
33,7 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
20 mai 26, 18:00 UTC6 mai 29, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
PolymarketHow much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich Party will win the House popular vote in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:United States Congress
- The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress.
- If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used.
- If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used.
- Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
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- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
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- 183,4 M €
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- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 2028 popular vote margin of victory? ?
- Kalshi cote Democratic by 9.0% or more à 19% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand 2028 popular vote margin of victory? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 2028 popular vote margin of victory? doit être résolu le 6 mai 2029.
- Comment 2028 popular vote margin of victory? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.