KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
At least 18% 77.6%En tête parmi 8 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
19 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
1,5 k €
Faible liquiditéDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
21 août 26, 19:00 UTC6 sept. 27, 16:00 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsBerlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?
PolymarketNext minister president of Saxony-Anhalt?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by CDU in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Landeswahlleiter des Landes Sachsen-Anhalt
- The percentage is the Christian Democratic Union's share of the Landesstimme, the party list vote, calculated as votes received divided by total valid Landesstimmen cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- Resolution uses certified official results, not preliminary results.
- Invalid, spoiled and rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and the denominator.
- If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
- If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond expiration, every market resolves to NO.